Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Çağatay Bircan

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Çağatay Bircan
Principal Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

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Elections and economic cycles: evidence from Turkey’s recent experiences

It has long been understood that incumbent politicians are likely to have incentives to manipulate fiscal policy around election times to improve economic circumstances. This column reports evidence from Turkey indicating that election cycles in recent years may have taken a financial form rather than a fiscal form, notably in the contrasting corporate lending cycles of state-owned banks across provinces with different political affiliations.

The benefits of year-round daylight saving time: evidence from Turkey

Ever since Benjamin Franklin’s observation in the late eighteenth century that people wasted daylight by sleeping after sunrise and squandered wax by burning candles in the evening, energy conservation has been the main motivation for governments to follow ‘daylight saving time’ (DST). Using Turkey’s recent decision to extend DST to the whole year, this column summarises new evidence on how DST affects the consumption and generation of electricity, and related greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis suggests that while total consumption is unchanged, emissions may have gone down due to the policy change.

Ownership structure and multinationals’ productivity: evidence from Turkey

Evidence is mixed on the effects of multinational activity on productivity and competitiveness in host economies. This column provides new evidence that previous estimates of the effects of multinationals on productivity may have been under-estimated. Analysis of data from Turkey’s manufacturing census suggests that the ownership structure of multinationals and foreign acquisitions play an important role in driving aggregate productivity growth.

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